Confidence is not probability. It's the model's own calibration against its historical distribution — a number you can compare against past behaviour, not a forecast of the next trade.
Reading the bands
- 0.80 and above — model is near the top of its calibrated range. Setups rare.
- 0.60–0.79 — the typical working band. Most actionable signals sit here.
- Below 0.60 — watch, don't act. Usually signals a developing setup, not a confirmed one.
Confidence updates daily, with intraday top-ups when underlying inputs move meaningfully. Use it as a ranking tool, not a trigger on its own.